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The AGI Lie Won't Die
Simple Computational Neurology Kills This Grift
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Hello everyone and welcome to my newsletter where I discuss real-world skills needed for the top data jobs. 👏
In this article I’ll be dismantling the grift that is AGI. 👀
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It’s hard to find a clear definition of what AGI is. The acronym is Artificial General Intelligence.
Here’s what ChatGPT had to say: A type of artificial intelligence that can understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks, just like a human.
Here’s what Gemini had to say: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), often referred to as "human-level AI" or "strong AI," is a theoretical type of artificial intelligence that would possess cognitive abilities comparable to those of a human being.
We have two definitions we can work with. Pick one, it doesn’t matter. Before we dig into the neurocomputational beat down of AGI, let’s understand why the lie is so strong. It’s a great lie that plays on two contradictory fears.
Utopian Salvation:
AGI will solve climate change, end disease, cure the common cold. Elon Musk said we won’t need a universal basic income, there will be so much prosperity we will have a universal high income.
Apocalyptic Doom:
AGI will enslave us, Terminator-style, and harvest our organs to fuel its servers. I’m more worried about the last one because I’m a large man with few extra pounds, the perfect specimen for a human fuel cell.

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If you work in any Ai role, you know that all the top models are glorified pattern predictors, chewing through massive datasets with brute force, not insight. Currently, the top machine learning models do nothing more than find patterns really well.
What’s more powerful than anything are belief systems. How many have died throughout history in the name of religion? Business learned this a long time ago. If you can convince a large enough group of people something is going to happen, they will throw money at it.
I might have veered off topic for a second. Let’s refocus and talk about the numbers.
The human brain has around 86 billion neurons. These 86 billion neurons, 1⁰¹⁶ to 1⁰¹⁸ FLOPS, use around 20 watts of power. No bad. 👏
One of the world’s top super computer, the frontier supercomputer, stands around ~1⁰¹⁸ FLOPS, needs 20 million watts. This means that even our best supercomputer, well, one that we know about at least, is a million times less efficient. 😯
Just with some basic math, there is no supercomputer that can come close to competing with the human brain.
It’s get worse for the machine. Neurons don’t just fire off ones and zeroes like transistors in chips. They’re doing something far more elegant. They modulate their signals, processing information both electrically and chemically at the same time. The brain is a hybrid analog-digital system, which is far more advanced than we’ve already defined the world’s top models are.
A little more about the math angle. The FLOPS for a neuron is between 116,000 and 11.6 million, depending on the complexity of the activity it's performing. Energy-wise, our brains work at the level of 86 billion neurons using 20 watts.
The Frontier Supercomputer can do the same, more or less, level of FLOPS per second as one of our neurons and needs 100 million times more energy, and it cannot do it consciously.
If Roger Penrose and a few of his colleagues are right, and that the brain’s microtubules, tiny structures within neurons operate at the quantum level, performing computations far beyond classical physics, then we move to something impossible for any current computer to model.
As an aside, I find it comical that we talk of computers that can cogitate similarly to how we can, yet we don’t truly understand how we cogitate. 😂
Until a computer has the capacity to compete in terms of processing power, all these discussion are just thought exercises.
Consciousness cannot be reduced to computation alone. The brain is not just a computer, and intelligence isn’t just about processing information.
Machine learning models can do incredible things. However, they will never be conscious. It won’t truly and properly understand. And it definitely won’t save us from ourselves.
Thanks for reading and have a great day. 👏
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